| No images? Click here Quote to note“I am not going on Twitter. I am going to stay on Truth” Donald Trump says he has no intention of re-joining Twitter after Elon Musk’s takeover. Trump was booted off the platform in the aftermath of the attack on Capitol Hill and set up his own (struggling) platform called Truth Social. But given his blue tick following (nearly 90 million on Twitter v 750,000 on Truth), some of his supporters think a rapprochement might be on the cards… Making news this morning1. The climate cracks are showing for the Coalition. Nationals Senator Matt Canavan yesterday said the 2050 net zero emissions target is “dead”, and he criticised government investment in hydrogen hubs. 2. PM Scott Morrison and Nats leader Barnaby Joyce will get to mop that up together today. They are in Rockhampton to talk up regional jobs (PW) and will tell locals that the Greens look down on regional Queenslanders (PW). 3. Whitehaven Coal boss Paul Flynn says Labor’s plan to reduce industrial emissions is a “carbon levy by stealth” (PW). Labor leader Anthony Albanese has pledged no carbon tax "ever" if he wins the election. 4. All eyes are on the Bureau of Stats CPI data release this morning. Analysts reckon the headline inflation rate is set to come in at about 4.5% for the last year – a lot more than the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target. 5. And right on cue, the Federal Government’s $250 payment to ease the rising cost of living starts dropping into bank accounts today. It will be paid to pensioners, welfare recipients, veterans, some self-funded retirees and concession cardholders. Going deeper: Pacific Step-Up or Stuff-Up? Foreign Policy still in the spotlightLast week, Labor’s Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong called the Solomons-China security deal "the worst failure of Australia Pacific foreign policy" since WWII. Now Labor’s outlined what it would do differently if it wins. ● Labor says it will boost development assistance to the region by $525 million over 4 years. (Note: Foreign Minister Marise Payne says Australia already gives the Pacific more than half its total aid, and the idea this extra fixes anything is wrong.) ● Wong promised to expand schemes that encourage Pacific workers to come to Australia – including up to 3,000 places a year for permanent visas. ● Labor’s also talking about “restoring leadership on climate change” and funding the ABC to broadcast into the Pacific. What it means: Defence and security is now clearly a dominant campaign theme – but it’s not clear yet how Labor’s attacks on the Government are playing with voters. What’s next: Australia’s former High Commissioner to PNG Ian Kemish says whoever wins, it can no longer be “business as usual” in the Pacific. Kemish says both sides will need heroic diplomacy to counter China’s rising influence. Economists agree the clock is ticking on interest ratesPretty much everyone agrees today’s inflation numbers (due out at 11.30 AEST) will show Australia is creeping into difficult territory. The forecasts suggest an average basket of goods has risen around 1.7% over the first few months of this year and 4.5% over the last 12 months. ● When you strip out some of the unusually steep price rises like fuel and home building costs, the core inflation rate (the number the Reserve Bank watches) has been sitting around 3.4%. ● Given it’s a core function of the RBA to keep inflation between 2-3%, economists think it will be contemplating more rapid rate rises to take some heat out of the economy. What it means: The last time the central bank lifted rates during an election campaign was in 2007. The RBA’s comments are that it’s more likely to wait until June… but there’s an outside chance it could move as early as next week. What’s next: We’ll get the word straight from the horse’s mouth when the Reserve Bank board meets next Tuesday. What you need to know about polls almost halfway into the campaign For the past couple of weeks, our 2 major parties have committed big sums of money trying to persuade undecided Australians to vote for them. But the most recent round of opinion polls is telling us that a) people don’t appear to be budging, and b) they aren’t really impressed by either side. ● Both the latest Financial Review Ipsos poll and The Australian’s Newspoll have shown statistically insignificant shifts since the campaign began. ● On primary votes, Ipsos has Labor at 34% (-1) and the Coalition at 32% (+1), while Newspoll has Labor at 37 (+1) v the Coalition’s 36% (+1). On a 2-party preferred basis, Ipsos converts that to 55-45 to Labor and Newspoll 53-47. ● Both polls have at least 25% of voters planning to vote for a minor party or an independent candidate. What does it mean: Both sides would be concerned about a primary vote sitting in the mid-30’s. If they can’t get that to +40% by the end of the campaign, we are in minority Government territory where they would need crossbench support to govern. (Note: the Coalition won in 2019 with 41.4% of the primary vote.) What’s next: Remember the polls got it wrong in 2019… This election will also be a bit of a test of whether changes to polling methods give us a better insight into voters’ intentions. Quick shotsThe next leaders’ debate is set to be on Network 7 on Thursday, 5 May. The Australian says (PW) it would be moderated by political editor Mark Riley. Labor says it will need overseas nurses to help meet its election promise to staff nursing homes around the clock. Leader Anthony Albanese says they will need OS recruitment after shadow minister Mark Butler previously said they wouldn’t. The Greens want to scrap tax breaks for millionaires with multiple investment properties in NSW’s Northern Rivers, which takes in beachside havens like Byron Bay. They say 889 investment properties in the Richmond electorate are owned by 89 out-of-towners (PW). It’s masks off (except for public transport and hospitals) for Western Australia from Friday. Capacity limits, the G2G pass, and most vaccination mandates will also be lifted. Guide Dogs Victoria has stood down its CEO after she appeared in election ads endorsing Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. The charity’s board said it had no knowledge of Karen Hayes’ involvement in the campaign. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has travelled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to push for a ceasefire in the war with Ukraine. He got the long, white table treatment… Prince Charles will be “a very fine head of state for Australia,” according to our High Commissioner to the UK, George Brandis. Wrapping up his 4-year term, he told the Financial Review (PW) that he doesn’t think there will be an Australian republic in his lifetime. Post of the day Whoopsie daisy… Captured on the campaign trail in Townsville by a keen-eyed ABC cameraman as the PM walked around a factory in Townsville. Political parties have ‘advancers’ who go ahead of the leader, and they are *meant* to iron everything out before the boss (or media) arrives. Looks like this safety sign was a late catch… What’s on todayScott Morrison is in Rockhampton with Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce for an announcement on regional employment And Anthony Albanese remains in COVID isolation 10.00am – United Australia Party Federal Leader Craig Kelly and his South Australian candidates come together for an in election announcement – Port Lincoln 11.30am – The Australian Bureau of Statistics to release the Consumer Price Index for the March 2022 quarter 12.30pm – Minister for Emergency Management and National Recovery and Resilience Bridget McKenzie addresses the National Press Club – Canberra 7.30pm – Kooyong candidates forum moderated by Victoria McKenzie-McHarg, Strategic Director at Women’s Environmental Leadership Australia. Local MP Josh Frydenberg is not taking part And for a walk back in time – today is the anniversary of the Australian Labor Party under Prime Minister Chris Watson becoming the first labour movement-aligned government in the world (1904) *All times in AEST unless noted And today’s quote for the subject line is, of course, from the movie A Few Good Men. |
