| No images? Click here Quote to note“It’s an illusion that this election is won for Mr Macron. With a high abstention rate … and the level of hatred toward the President among some people, there could be a real surprise.” Said political scientist Nicolas Tenzer of the tightening presidential race in France, where Emmanuel Macron is facing a challenge from hard-right leader Marine Le Pen. While Macron’s been playing the role of international statesman in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Le Pen’s kept her focus sharply on the homefront. The first round of voting takes place on Sunday. Making news this morning1. PM Scott Morrison says he “stood up for the women in my team” when he intervened in some preselections in NSW. Speaking on ABC TV’s 7.30 last night, he shook off claims of a power grab and said he was securing the political futures of Environment Minister Sussan Ley and others. 2. But the saga ain’t over with yesterday’s legal win for the PM… NSW Liberal Party state executive member Matthew Camenzuli says a High Court appeal will be lodged today. 3. Australia will develop hypersonic missiles that have a range of more than 2,000 km with help from the US and Britain. PM Morrison spoke to his AUKUS counterparts Joe Biden and Boris Johnson about it early this morning in the context of a rising China and Russian aggression. 4. Speaking of China, the soon-to-be inked security deal between it and the Solomon Islands is “very concerning”, according to US Admiral Samuel J Paparo. He is the Commander of the US Pacific Fleet, and he joins Aussie and Kiwi officials concerned about the growing potential for conflict in the Indo-Pacific. 5. Ukrainians have been murdered and Russian tanks have crushed people "for pleasure", Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the UN Security Council overnight. He’s called on them to kick Russia out as a member and take action to end the war. Going deeper: Big relief for the PM as he gets the all-clear on his Liberal candidatesThe NSW Liberal Party’s big factional mess has been tidied up (for now) by the state’s Court of Appeal. It’s given the green light to 12 candidates installed by the federal executive featuring PM Scott Morrison, Premier Dominic Perrottet and former president Chris McDiven. IT millionaire/state executive member Matthew Camenzuli had challenged the intervention – insisting party locals should decide who represents them. ● The long delay on these preselections has made it particularly tough for Liberal candidates in marginal seats like Parramatta and Eden-Monaro, where name and face recognition with voters are essential if they’re to have a chance of taking them off Labor. ● The PM is also dealing with lots of spot fires in his home state. He’s got the bruising fallout of his own preselection contest against Michael Towke resurfacing after 15 years. Liberals have fallen out in the must-retain inner western Sydney seat of Reid. And a state MP has joined those on Morrison’s own side handing out unfavourable character assessments. What it means: It’s not a great state of affairs for the Coalition, given the party is hoping to actually pick up seats in NSW to compensate for possible losses in places like Western Oz. What’s next: The court case and uncertainty around the legality of the candidates was one factor delaying the federal election campaign. On that front, the decks are cleared – even despite a looming High Court challenge. That’s because the NSW Court of Appeal yesterday said the internal political party dispute was not capable of being arbitrated by the court. And it said it would reject the challenge even if the High Court says it is “justiciable”. A gaffe distracts from Jim Chalmers’ moment in the sunEvery year, the post-Budget address to the National Press Club is a major deal for the Shadow Treasurer. Unfortunately for Labor’s Jim Chalmers, many of the column inches devoted to his speech will also refer to an unfortunate (later deleted) tweet from his account pointing to the Coalition’s record on unemployment beating Labor’s. The figures were back-to-front in the graphic, and you’d better believe his opponents made merry. ● But to his address… If Labor wins, Chalmers has confirmed he’ll likely have the unhappy task of reinstating the 22c/litre fuel excise in September. He agrees with the government it should only be a temporary measure to help with the recent petrol price spike. ● And he accused the government of massive waste – like $5.5 billion on submarines that won’t be built – but hasn’t given details on Labor’s costings for its plans. What it means: Like his leader Anthony Albanese, Chalmers is trying to reassure voters there’s nothing to fear in a change of government – that Labor is a pair of safe hands on the economy. What’s next: Labor is holding off on a lot of policy detail and the costing of its promises until the election campaign. That’s situation normal these days. Opinion polls are everywhere – but will they get it right? You can’t look anywhere in the media this week without spotting an opinion poll – and they’ve all got some striking similarities. The Australian‘s Newspoll says Labor is ahead of the Coalition 54:46 on a 2-party preferred basis, and the Financial Review‘s Ipsos poll shows a 55:45 result in Labor’s favour. The SMH/Age Resolve Monitor isn’t publishing 2-party figures after acknowledging poll flaws after the last election – but analyst Jim Reed thinks 54 or 55 for Labor is about right. ● So that means it’s in the bag for Labor, right? Not so fast… In 2019, the big 5 national polls all lined up for Labor right before election day, and we know how that turned out for Bill Shorten. In the aftermath, it was found that the major polls underestimated the Coalition’s primary vote by close to 3%. ● Since then, polling companies have turned themselves inside out to fix their models, which kinda boils down to making sure they get a broader sample of Aussies in their surveys – not just people who would answer a home phone. What does it mean: The good news on the road to reputation repair for the polling industry is the polls in the recent South Australian election proved to be on the money. Before election day, Newspoll showed Labor was leading the Liberals 54-46 – the result was 54.59 to 45.41. The thing to know: We’ll be hit by some type of poll or polling analysis nearly every day of the campaign as media companies pay for regular read-outs. They will tell us something – but not everything. You know the saying – the only poll that counts… Quick shotsInterest rates remain at the record low level of 0.1% – for now. Following yesterday’s Reserve Bank board meeting, Governor Philip Lowe said more information about “both inflation and the evolution of labour costs” is required before any lift. Former NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s leaked text messages about PM Morrison are back in the news. Last night on ABC TV’s 7.30, he said she didn’t message a mystery colleague saying he was a "horrible, horrible person". But last night, Ten’s political editor Peter van Onselen said the texts are real. Environment Minister Sussan Ley has been accused of sitting on a critical report. The ‘Australia State of the Environment’ report was handed to her in December, and she is required to table it in parliament within 15 sitting days. MPs have sat 11 days this year… Former Liberal leader/Defence Minister Brendan Nelson has been appointed to the council of the Australian War Memorial. He knows the institution well after serving as director between 2012 and 2019. Former PM Tony Abbott is also on the council. Tasmania’s Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff is in the box seat to take over the top job after Peter Gutwein’s surprise resignation on Monday. He’s a moderate and served as deputy to former Premier Will Hodgman. Queensland is ending its COVID vaccination mandate for cafes and pubs. From 14 April, unvaxxed patrons will be able to eat and drink alongside other patrons, and you won’t need proof of jab to enter sports stadiums or theme parks either. The ABC wants your help… It’s joined with the Australian Ad Observatory to track political ads on Facebook during the campaign. They’re asking Aussies to share what they’re seeing to uncover campaign strategies and tactics. Pic of the day Stephanie Peatling is the deputy federal editor of the Sydney Morning Herald/The Age based in Canberra. On Twitter, we come for her insights and stay for the regular updates on the weird and wonderful creations coming from the Parliament House Cafeteria. Chuck her a follow to stay up to date… What’s on today8.30am – Senator Bridget McKenzie, Minister for Regional Communications, to announce 2 projects to be funded under the Regional Connectivity Program, which is aimed at improving digital connectivity in regional and remote Australia – Alice Springs 11.30am (9.30am local time) – Labor leader Anthony Albanese is in Perth will hold a media event with Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan From 11.30am – The Sydney Media Club hosts an ‘in conversation’ lunch featuring The Australian’s Sharri Markson and Claire Harvey to discuss ‘the pivotal 2022 election and our place in a world of conflict and chaos’ – Sydney 12.30pm – Newly-minted South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas addresses the National Press Club – Canberra And for something cheery, the ABS will release data on the causes of death in 2020 *All times in AEST unless noted |
