| No images? Click here Quote to note“There were times you couldn’t give me away.” Former Prime Minister John Howard might have been PM from 1996-2007, but long before that, he was a pretty unpopular opposition leader… He was even called “Mr 18%” for his shocking poll numbers. These days he’s a force for the Libs on the campaign trail, appearing everywhere from Western Oz to Queensland – and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong in Victoria. Making news this morning1. The polls are tightening… The SMH/Age Political Monitor shows Labor primary vote is down to 31% from 34%, while the Coalition has picked up a point with 34%. And The Guardian’s Essential Poll has a 2-party preferred “plus” measure with Labor on 48%, the Coalition on 46%, and 7% remain undecided. 2. Analysts expect the release of today’s official Wages Price Index to confirm the biggest fall in real wages on record. However, Reserve Bank minutes released yesterday show board members believe wages growth is accelerating, providing another reason to keep raising interest rates. 3. Labor leader Anthony Albanese is defending the decision not to release the party’s election policy costings until tomorrow, after tonight’s media blackout. It’s the subject of some ongoing tension he’s experiencing with his travelling press pack. 4. If Labor wins on Saturday, Albanese and Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong will be sworn in ASAP. The Quad leaders’ meeting in Tokyo on Tuesday means that would happen ahead of the Labor caucus meeting to elect ministers, the Labor leader has told The Australian (PW). 5.. PM Scott Morrison says he could have tempered his “bulldozer” tendencies by being “more sensitive at times”. Last night, Nine’s A Current Affair saw Tracy Grimshaw question his claim that he’s “saved the country”. Going deeper: Campaign costings… how the parties will pay for their promisesA bit like the outrage generated when Hot Cross Buns land in the supermarket on Boxing Day, we have the argument about election costings *every* campaign… The Coalition released theirs today, and Labor leader Anthony Albanese copped a press conference full of questions about why he wasn’t handing over Labor’s until tomorrow. ● Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the public service will be expected to find an extra $3.3 billion in savings over the next 3 years under the Coalition’s plan. ● That “efficiency dividend” is currently 1.5% of every Department’s budget – and would rise to 2%. Frydenberg says the increase will cover the cost of every Lib campaign promise and leave the Budget about $1 billion better off. What it means: Debates about costings used to mean more when the parties had a laser-like focus on the size of deficits and surpluses. But massive government spending thanks to the pandemic means no one can crow about getting the Budget "back in the black" anytime soon… So the costings thing hasn’t got the same traction this time around. What’s next: Labor will take its turn tomorrow. We already know it’s promising to save about $5 billion by cutting the use of consultants and targeting multinational tax evasion. So far, its key people have not disputed it would run larger debt and deficits than the Coalition, saying they are focused on the quality of the spending. The surprise seats that just might be in play this election As the leaders criss-cross the country, the same marginal seats and candidates get most of the attention. But there are many "safe" seats no one’s talking about much that might come into play… ● Labor frontbencher Kristina Keneally is standing for the southwestern Sydney seat of Fowler. She’s being challenged by independent Dai Le, who’s betting on community anger at an "outsider" being parachuted in from the Northern Beaches. ● Based around Shepparton in regional Victoria, Nicholls was one of the Nationals’ safest seats. Incumbent Damian Drum has retired, and ABC election analyst Antony Green thinks independent Rob Priestly has a chance of getting over the line. ● Higgins is one to watch in Melbourne… Liberal Katie Allen isn’t facing a Teal challenger, unlike her neighbours in Kooyong and Goldstein, but Labor is bullish about its chances. ● The Greens think Ryan in Brisbane is in play on Saturday. It’s as blue as blue ribbon seats come, so if either Labor or the Greens claim it, you’ll know a big swing is on. What it means: Remember the magic number is 76. That means the Coalition has got to hold every seat or pick one up for every loss. Labor needs to win 7 seats to have a majority. What’s next: Enjoy the ride on Saturday night… There are 151 contests in the lower house, so there could be a good sprinkling of surprises. Sri Lanka down to its last day of fuel, PM warns worse to come Sri Lanka’s new PM Ranil Wickremesinghe has had the sobering task of telling his country it’s run out of petrol. Two oil tankers are sitting off the coast, but Wickremesinghe says Sri Lanka doesn’t have the $75-100 million in foreign reserves it needs to pay. ● This is Sri Lanka’s worst economic crisis since the end of WWII. Former PM Mahinda Rajapaksa finally resigned last week after food, power and medicine shortages led to deadly protests kicking off in March. ● Wickremesinghe was appointed by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa (brother of Mahinda) – he’s an opposition MP but has been called a “stooge” for the 2 brothers. He says he’s only interested in saving his country – not defending any family or political party. What does it mean: Wickremesinghe says what’s coming will be “the most difficult ones of our lives.” For example, he’s warned that electricity cuts could extend to 15 hours a day. What’s next: The Australian men’s cricket team is due to tour Sri Lanka next month, and officials have been watching the security situation pretty closely. Quick shotsAlso in the Reserve Bank minutes yesterday: a prediction that rising mortgage costs and declining real wages could lead to bigger falls in home values than anticipated. ANZ reckons capital-city housing prices will fall 3% this year and 8% next year (PW). The Bank of England has warned of an apocalyptic food shortage. Governor Andrew Bailey says the world must do more to get grain supply out of Ukraine or face even higher prices (PW). The West Australian’s Utting Research poll (PW) has Teal independent Kate Chaney ahead of Liberal incumbent Celia Hammond in Julie Bishop’s former seat of Curtin. Pollsters say support for the well-connected Chaney has surged as the campaign continues. Teal Goldstein candidate Zoe Daniel is considering launching a defamation lawsuit against her Liberal opponent Tim Wilson. She’s accused him of making comments implying that she and her campaign are “anti-Semitic” and “racist” (PW). He accused her of trying to “use the law to silence her critics”. Not only is former Liberal PM John Howard turning up in person – he has been hitting the phones – in robo form… He’s making tonnes of telephone and letterbox appearances after the party asked him to “campaign extensively”. The Philippines president-elect Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr has made a private trip to Australia. The 64-year-old has flown into Melbourne where his youngest son Vincent is thought to be enrolling at the University of Melbourne Most ‘Unexplained Aerial Phenomena’ can be identified, but 2 top military officials say several events have defied all attempts at explanation. It’s the first time in 50 years that UFO sightings have been probed before a US congressional hearing. Post of the day Move over, Newspoll and Sportsbet – there’s a new predictive indicator in town… We’ll see how Muffin Break fares in the great-poll-washup when the results are thoroughly chewed and digested. What’s on todayPrime Minister Scott Morrison is campaigning in Geelong, Victoria Labor leader Anthony Albanese is heading to Canberra to address the National Press Club at 12.30pm Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce is campaigning in Emerald, Queensland 11.30am – The ABS releases the latest Wage Price Index which measures changes in the price of labour 6.00pm – Postal vote applications for the 2022 federal election close It’s the anniversary of the Morrison Government’s "miracle" win in the 2019 election *All times in AEST unless noted Today’s quote for the subject line is courtesy of a muffin appreciation website... |
