| No images? Click here Quote to note“Like the apocryphal tale of two hikers approached by a bear: Morrison only needs to outrun Albanese, not the bear.” Chief Pollster for Resolve Political Monitor Jim Reed has a way of spinning the numbers… His poll was published yesterday in the SMH/Age and had Labor’s Anthony Albanese falling behind the Coalition’s Scott Morrison as preferred PM after a difficult first week on the campaign trail (Albanese 30[-7]: Morrison 38[+2]). On primary votes, the Coalition also improved (Labor 34 [-4]: Coalition 35 [+1]). Making news this morning1. Newspoll is out (PW), and it’s not great news for either major party because their primary votes remain in the mid-30s. Strong preference flows/deals with crossbenchers would be required to secure government at that rate. 2. A hung parliament is a prospect the ‘teal’ independents are ready for. Some high profile candidates say they want a commitment to action on climate change and an integrity commission as a starting point for any negotiations. 3. PM Scott Morrison will pledge loyalty to WA’s mining sector in a speech today (PW). He’s promising no mining tax, no carbon tax, and no adverse changes to fuel tax credit arrangements. 4. Labor leader Anthony Albanese has named the 7 seats he thinks he can win from the Liberals to take government. Swan and Hasluck in Western Australia, Bass and Braddon in northern Tasmania, Reid and Robertson in NSW and Brisbane in Queensland are in his sights, he’s told the News Corp metro dailies (PW). 5. Former PM Kevin Rudd is set to become Australia’s ambassador to the US if Labor wins on 21 May. The Australian says (PW) Albanese has told senior Labor figures the former diplomat would be his pick for the key role. Going deeper: Boats and Medicare – let the scare campaigns begin…They are topics that have featured in 2 decades of Australian election campaigns, and it looks like 2022 won’t be much different… ● Anthony Albanese has clarified Labor’s policies on offshore detention and temporary protection visas twice in just a few days and opened up fresh attacks from Scott Morrison. Remember: as Immigration Minister, the PM was in charge of Operation Sovereign Borders, and he relishes the opportunity to talk about it. ● Meanwhile, the Coalition has spent a couple of days defending itself against claims it will cut Medicare after incoming Liberal Health Minister Anne Ruston was reminded of comments she made in 2014 that the scheme was unsustainable. What it means: Both sides have already produced negative campaign ads – and we’ll be seeing a lot of ‘em. Labor’s launched a green and gold coloured “Save Medicare” fundraising page, and the Libs have TV ads portraying Albanese as a weather vane. What’s next: You might not even see the ads that change votes. Political parties “micro-target” ad campaigns based on age, gender and income because that’s how the social media platforms roll. The parties are in lockstep on one policy – but economists say it’s a shockerHome prices are a national preoccupation – and Labor and the Coalition have pretty much the same idea when it comes to helping first home buyers get into the market. The government already has a scheme that allows around 50,000 people a year to buy with as little as a 5% deposit (or 2% for single parents). ● The Coalition has increased the house value you can bid for under the scheme… Up to $900,000 in Sydney and $800,000 in Melbourne (a $100,000 rise) – and Labor has backed in the change. ● But… Economist Saul Eslake thinks the policy is counter-productive because it allows people to borrow more – and pay more… What it means: Eslake says the policy will lead to higher home prices – not more people owning their own homes. Homeownership in Australia has been steady at around 65-70% since the 1960s, but it’s fallen for 25-34yos. What’s next: Watching for interest rate rises as early June. And Eslake says that’s a danger for those who take advantage of this scheme – they could find themselves in strife with multiple hikes forecast in the 2nd half of the year. Countering campaign lies – the Electoral Commission wants a fair fight on voting day Election misinformation is already doing the rounds this election. The Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers yesterday said (PW) there are some "absolutely bonkers" theories getting about, and he’s already issuing takedown notices and threats of legal action. ● Late last year, former One Nation senator Rod Cullerton said the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) planned to use mass electronic counting, which would rig the result in favour of the major parties. This tale has been running since Donald Trump first claimed the 2020 Presidential election was stolen from him by similar methods. ● The AEC says it’s combing social media to find and debunk claims, like the one that you can "sack the government" by drawing a line through every name on the ballot paper and writing "no suitable candidate to follow my will". Another says you can’t vote without a COVID vaccination certificate. What does it mean: Disinformation campaigns amplified by social media platforms have had a corrosive effect on elections worldwide. The AEC doesn’t want them taking hold in Australia. What’s next: The AEC is working with social media companies to take down these pages. It’s also published a register with the most prominent baseless claims – and there are some real whoppers… Quick shotsLiberal candidate in Warringah Katherine Deves has told party members she is “not going anywhere” despite her controversial social media posts on transgender issues and efforts to dump her. The intense focus on her candidacy saw her take steps to avoid a photographer on her way to a fundraiser yesterday. Andrew Constance has ruled out taking a portfolio in a new Morrison Government if he wins in Gilmore. The former NSW minister says he wants “time out from being a minister and to actually focus on being a local member.” A Productivity Commission review of the NDIS would be brought forward by a Labor government, along with a crackdown on rorting and the streamlining of services. The policy will be announced by disabilities spokesman Bill Shorten today. Labor’s ‘Rewiring the Nation’ plan could add as much as $560 to the average annual power bill within a decade, the Herald Sun reports (PW). Modelling by the government, Frontier Economics and the Grattan Institute has questioned the $20 billion policy, which Labor says will cut electricity costs. The Coalition and Labor are spending big on ‘subterranean’ election promises, the Financial Review says (PW). Almost $400 million in funding promises across 25 seats have been made, not that you’ll find a press release with the details. The rolls have closed, so back luck if you need to update your details or register to vote for the first time… The Australian Electoral Commission says it will release the final numbers in a couple of days "once we’ve processed all of your last minute applications and certified the Electoral Roll." And the odds are shortening for a Coalition win. Starting the campaign at $3.05, Sportsbet says a Coalition win is now attracting odds of circa $1.85 (PW), which is about the same as Labor. Reminder: like the polls, the agency got it wrong last election… Chart of the daySo far, it really is the economy stupid…  Media monitoring company Streem is keeping an eye on the issues being covering this election campaign. The Coalition’s preferred topics of Employment/Budget/Economy are all in the top 5 (total of 8,464 mentions). Meanwhile, Labor’s preferred areas of Environment/Health are up there, running at a combined 5,728 mentions. Down the list is COVID, which seems to have fallen away as a big election issue. Knock on wood. What’s on todayPM Scott Morrison continues his campaign in Western Australia, including a speech to the state’s Chamber of Minerals and Energy Labor’s Anthony Albanese spends a second day in Brisbane 10.30am (10.00am local time) – South Australian Liberal MPs meet to vote on a new leader to replace former premier Steven Marshall – Adelaide 11.30am – The minutes of April’s monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board are released 11.30am – The Australian Bureau of Statistics to release its experimental indicator of household spending using banks’ transaction data for February 2022 12.30pm – Federal Agriculture Minister David Littleproud and Labor’s spokeswoman Julie Collins debate their parties’ policies at the National Press Club – Canberra And a look back in time – It’s the anniversary of Advance Australia Fair being proclaimed as Australia’s national anthem, with green and gold the national colours (1984) *All times in AEST unless noted |
