| No images? Click here Quote to note“BREAKING: Australian Prime Minister Completes Full Term Without Being Whacked For First Time In Fifteen Years” Hold the front page… ABC’s Annabel Crabb yesterday pointed out that PM Scott Morrison has successfully made it through a whole term of government without his own side ending his tenure – the first since John Howard in 2007. It’s a feat that the 4 prime ministers before him – Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull – did not accomplish. Making news this morning1. Welcome to Election ’22. This morning’s Newspoll from The Australian (PW) show’s it’s all in front of the Coalition to retain government, but the numbers are already tightening. Labor is ahead 53-47 on a 2-party preferred basis, a one-point improvement for the Coalition. 2. And there’s been a collapse in support for the Coalition in Queensland and Western Australia, according to the SMH/Age Resolve Political Monitor. Usually strong supporters, the 2 states are crucial for the Coalition to secure another term in government. 3. Cost of living is voters’ top issue in this election. Pollsters Ipsos told the Financial Review (PW) that 44% of respondents to its latest issues monitor say they are anxious about prices going up. 4. But the campaign will be all about the character of the major parties’ leaders, say the chief political correspondents of our national newspapers. The Financial Review’s Phil Coorey (PW) and The Australian’s Geoff Chambers (PW) say brace for a bruising 6 weeks. 5. Meanwhile, the ‘teal’ independents are off and running with big campaign launches. Former ABC reporter Zoe Daniel kicked off her tilt for Goldstein before a big crowd yesterday. Going deeper: Morrison promises a ‘strong economy, strong future’After the end of a legal challenge and a Saturday curry with the family in Sydney, PM Scott Morrison was back to Canberra yesterday morning for a cuppa with Governor-General David Hurley – and to advise him to call an election for the House of Representatives and half of the Senate on 21 May. Next stop was the first official press conference of the campaign to tell voters what it’s all about. ● Morrison calls it “the choice”. He said his government is “not perfect", but he is asking voters to recognise that they got Australia through the worst economic crisis of the last 70 years and the worst health crisis in 100 years. And they are best placed to navigate the ongoing uncertainty, he says. ● He called out 5 policy areas: jobs; tax relief for workers and small businesses; investment in roads, rail, water infrastructure and renewable energy technology; record investments in health and other essential services; and defence, security and borders. ● And the PM was short and sharp, taking just 6 questions from the Canberra press pack. The line of the day: “This election is a choice between a government that you know and that has been delivering, and a Labor Opposition that you don’t.” The campaign tagline we will see on repeat: A strong economy and a stronger future. Albanese’s seeking ‘a better future’Labor leader Anthony Albanese spent Friday and Saturday urging Morrison to “get on with it”, and yesterday, he delivered his campaign starter from Sydney. Part policy showcase, part review of the Coalition’s performance, part Albanese backstory explainer, he shook off Morrison’s claim he is inexperienced. If elected, his current cabinet is "the most experienced incoming Labor government in history," he says. ● On the policy front, Albanese’s wide-ranging opener covered Labor’s plans for climate action, more affordable childcare and a better aged care system, and the establishment of an integrity commission. ● His choice of words on the Coalition’s reign was interesting – "a second decade in office" is what they’re asking for, he said. Two decades sounds much longer than Morrison’s personal quest for a 2nd term… ● Albanese took a different approach to addressing the media than Morrison, taking many, many questions. It was a strategy that some in the media questioned… The line of the day: "I won’t go missing when the going gets tough. I will accept the responsibility that comes with high office.” The campaign tagline we will see on repeat: A better future. The key numbers for Election ‘22 The starter’s gun has been fired, and we’re off and racing. So, where do things stand as we set our GPS for 21 May? ● The Coalition finished the term with 76 MPs in the House of Representatives, giving it a majority of 1. Morrison started the term with 77 MPs but lost Hughes Liberal Craig Kelly to the United Australia Party over COVID misinformation tussles last year. ● Labor won 68 seats last election but start with a notional 69 seats. That’s because the new seat of Hawke in suburban Melbourne – named after the one and only 23rd prime minister of Australia Robert James Lee Hawke – is expected to be picked up by the ALP in May. ● That leaves 6 seats. One seat each is held by the Greens (leader Adam Bandt), Centre Alliance from South Australia (Rebekha Sharkie), and Katter’s Australian Party (that’s Bob Katter from Far North Queensland). And the remaining 3 seats are independents: Andrew Wilkie in Clarke/Tassie, Helen Haines in Indi/Victoria, and Zali Steggall in Warringah/NSW. What it means: Labor needs to pick up 7 seats to win a majority, and that will take a national swing of 3.3%. That’s a sizable hill to climb for a relatively small number of seats. It’s the legacy of the 2019 election where the Coalition had a 1.2% national swing towards it and a 4.3% swing in Queensland. Extra reading: You can’t go past a squiz at the pendulum to get across the flavour of the individual races that have to be run. And here’s a good summary of the 20 key seats to keep an eye on. Quick shotsFormer Education Minister Alan Tudge is still a frontbencher, as far as PM Morrison is concerned. The Victorian stepped aside on 2 December after his former adviser Rachelle Miller alleged their affair had been abusive – accusations Tudge denies. NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania are feeling the campaign love of PM Morrison, Labor leader Albanese, and their parties’ media budgets. Victoria – not so much. It delivered the Coalition one of 2 state/territory swings against it in 2019 (-1.31%) – the ACT was the only other to move away from the Coalition (-0.48) at the last election. The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has lost 2 organisational heavyweights. Linda Fazldeen AM and former deputy chief minister Peter Styles have resigned (PW) in the latest round of “backstabbings, character assassinations and vicious whisper campaigns”. Pakistani PM Imran Khan lost a no-confidence vote in his leadership and has been booted from office. The former cricketing great had tried to duck the vote by dissolving the Parliament, but he was overturned by Pakistan’s Supreme Court, and he had to face the music on Sunday morning. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has had a busy weekend playing host to international leaders. On Friday, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen toured Bucha, and on Saturday, UK PM Boris Johnson was in Kyiv. The shows of solidarity came with promises of military aid to help Ukraine fend off the Russian invaders. The first round of voting in France’s presidential election has ended, and the count so far points to an Emmanuel Macron/Marine Le Pen runoff in 2 weeks. You can keep up with the official count here. Forget Eden-Monaro – the real election bellwether is Brisbane’s Mango Hill. The community in the electorate of Petrie has gone the way of the government for decades, according to the Courier-Mail (PW). Chart of the day The ABC is working with Professor Simon Jackman from Sydney Uni to publish an average of the polls produced by YouGov Galaxy, Essential, Resolve, Ipsos and Roy Morgan during this election. There’s some science to it and Jackman says "there are real limits" to the model – so consider that a disclaimer… All that aside, here’s the starting point: Labor has a significant 2-party preferred lead with 54.8% to the Coalition’s 45.2%. Let the polling games begin… What’s on todayPM Scott Morrison starts the day in Nowra, NSW in the seat of Gilmore (ALP/2.6%) Labor leader Anthony Albanese Albanese is in Bass (Liberal/0.4%) in northern Tasmania Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce will be in northern Victoria to open the $323m Echuca-Moama Bridge From 9.00am – Hearings of an independent NSW inquiry into The Star to determine whether it is fit to keep its casino licence continue – Sydney 9.26am – The federal parliament will be officially dissolved ahead of the 21 May 21 – the ceremony includes a 19-gun salute – Canberra From 10.00am – The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability continues. Today’s virtual program focuses on the experience of people with disability working in Australian Disability Enterprises From 10.00am – The Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide continues its public hearings – Canberra 7.00pm – Australians for Constitutional Monarchy convener David Flint is hosting a webinar with News Corp columnist Piers Akerman on ‘The Queen’s Platinum Jubilee – What is the Future of the Monarchy’ *All times in AEST unless noted |
